Analysis on the Economic Operation of China's Die and Mould Industry in the First Half of 2011

Due to the rapid growth of the domestic economy and the slow recovery of the international economy, the production and demand of China's mold market in the first half of 2011 are booming. In the international market, due to industrialized countries’ efforts to reduce industrial production costs, China’s molds still have competitive advantages and foreign trade conditions are relatively good. According to the International Model Association Secretary-General Luo Baihui, the total import and export of molds during the period from January to June this year was 2.479 billion U.S. dollars, of which imports totaled 1.109 billion U.S. dollars and exports totaled 1.371 billion U.S. dollars, compared with the same period of last year. The volume increased 24.39% year-on-year, of which total exports increased by 37.93% year-on-year, and total imports increased by 10.91% year-on-year.

According to the type of mold, the most import and export is a plastic rubber mold. Followed by stamping die. According to the points of imports, the imported molds mainly come from Japan, South Korea and Germany, followed by China Taiwan, Canada, Italy, Luxembourg, Singapore, France and Denmark. According to the export destination, the market for Chinese export molds is mainly the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, the United States, and Japan, followed by India, Germany, Thailand, France, Taiwan, Brazil, and Vietnam. According to the import destination, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shanghai were the most imported, followed by Tianjin, Zhejiang, Jilin, Shandong, Beijing, Liaoning and Sichuan. According to the export source, the export molds mainly come from Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, followed by Shanghai, Fujian, Tianjin, Shandong, Liaoning, Jiangxi and Beijing.

It can be seen that, compared with the same period of last year, the import and export volume of the mold has increased, especially the large increase in export volume, which further shows that the international market competitiveness of China's mold is increasing. China has now exported molds from 28 provinces, cities and regions to 176 countries and regions. International trade has become increasingly close. The coverage and influence of Chinese molds in the international market are also increasing.

China's current mold industry operating characteristics (1) The structural adjustment has achieved results, and the overall level of the industry has improved rapidly. Mainly reflected in the large-scale, sophisticated, complex, long-life mold as the main representative of the proportion of high-grade mold continues to rise, scientific and technological progress is obvious, the product level has been greatly improved. The gap between the average price of imports and exports of moulds is continuously narrowing, reflecting the improvement of the overall level of China's mold industry and technological progress.

(2) The cluster production mode has further developed, and the producer service industry has been strengthened. The development of cluster-based production methods is mainly reflected in the development of mold production clusters. According to Luo Baihui, Secretary-General of the International Association for Modeling, as of the first half of this year, more than 50 mold production clusters have been further developed, and some new production clusters have begun to gradually form scale, including some to develop modern service industries. The “Mold City”, which is dominated by the headquarters economy, shows a good momentum of development. Its services to the mold industry, the majority of SMEs in various forms of service platforms and services, more and more rich service content, service output rose faster. According to incomplete statistics, there have been more than 2,000 companies that have entered the mold production clusters (mold towns, mold parks, etc.), and the total output has reached 30 billion yuan, of which the mold accounts for about two-thirds.

(3) The mold market is further explored and developed, and new growth points have attracted attention. In the domestic market, automobile lightweighting, new energy, medical devices, aerospace, energy conservation and emission reduction have become important new growth points for the mold industry. In the international market, in addition to the traditional markets of Europe, the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asia, the development of emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Russia, and Australia has achieved results. At present, China's mold exports have reached 176 countries and regions.

Difficulties in the operation of the mold industry:

(1) After implementing the value-added tax policy for some mold products after the end of 2008 in the mold industry for many years, the new policy for the continued support of mold development in the "Equipment Manufacturing Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" has not yet been introduced. This has affected the development of the industry.

(2) The overall price level of mold products declined, while the cost continued to increase. As a result, the profit rate of mold enterprises continued to decline, coupled with the slow withdrawal of payment, and the increase in corporate receivables, which further increased the difficulty of corporate management.

(3) There have been various indications that mold companies will face shortages of orders and further shortened delivery times in the second half of the year. Uncertainties will increase, and the appreciation of the renminbi will adversely affect exports. The financing of SMEs is still difficult, and these will all be difficult. Affects the operation of this year and the long-term development of the industry.

In the second half of the year, the industry will continue to grow faster, but the growth rate will slow down. The main constraint on the slowdown in growth is the lack of orders and lack of policies. The lack of talent is also one of the factors.

Seven factors affect the development of China's foreign trade in molds. The International Model Association Secretary-General Luo Baihui pointed out that there are seven major factors that affect the development of China's mold foreign trade in the second half of the year.

First, the stabilization of the global economy will help stabilize China's external demand. In the second half of 2011, foreign demand is still the most important factor affecting China's exports. Affected by the global economic recovery, the external environment of China's exports will also improve. However, we must also note that the foundation for the recovery of the global economy, especially the developed economies, is not yet stable. Not only is the pace and level of economic recovery uncertain, but there is also the possibility that the economy will reach a bottom second. If external demand resumes or fluctuates later, China’s exports will face greater external pressure.

Second, the continuous adjustment of domestic policies will further support exports. Continuously increasing the export tax rebate rate for some products, re-adjusting the catalogue of restrictions on processing trade restrictions, maintaining a basically stable RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, and strengthening credit support for export companies have played a positive role in preventing excessive export declines in the first half of this year. In the second half of the year, these policies will play a greater role in stabilizing exports.

Third, changes in the global export structure will help stabilize China's exports. After the financial crisis broke out, there were some adjustments in the structure of global trade products. Luo Baihui believes that in the context of diminished income, consumer demand for lower-priced products has generally increased. This is reflected in trade’s increased demand for labor-intensive products, stable prices, and even rising prices. It is expected that this trend will continue in the international market for some time. At this stage, China’s export structure is still dominated by labor-intensive products, and the international market’s demand for China’s inexpensive exports is relatively small.

Fourth, the low cost of domestic export product production is conducive to China's export price competitiveness. In the first half of the year, due to factors such as the recession in the global economy and the decline in domestic exports, and a significant slowdown in economic growth, the cost of domestic labor and raw materials fell, which is conducive to reducing the production costs of export products. The reduction in production costs of export enterprises has led to an increase in price competitiveness and has played a supporting role in improving exports. In the second half of the year, although the prices of international raw materials may rise to some extent, the domestic price level may further decline. Large-scale employment pressure also leads to difficulty in rising wages. Therefore, the production costs of export enterprises will continue to be kept at a relatively low level. It will help maintain the price competitiveness of our export products.

Fifth, trade protectionism will increase the difficulty of expanding exports. Under the background of increasing international trade protectionism, China, as the world’s third largest trading entity and second largest exporter, has become the main target of international trade friction. It is expected that trade protectionism against China will continue at a relatively high level in the second half of the year. In addition, some of the investigations in the previous period will enter the adjudication process, and China’s related exports will be materially affected.

Sixth, the impact of changes in import and export prices on China’s trade will be reduced. The price fluctuation of primary products such as mold steel in the international market will decrease. Although many primary product prices have rebounded sharply since the recent bottoming out, it is difficult for primary product prices to rise further in the second half of the year as the global economy will not turn positive. Under such circumstances, it will be very difficult for the import amount and import amount to deviate from each other in the first half of the year, and the import amount will change synchronously with the import volume.

Seventh, the recovery of domestic demand in China will drive imports. The significant year-on-year drop in imports during the first half of the year was strongly related to the sharp drop in the domestic economy. Under the influence of a series of domestic stimulus policies, China’s domestic demand has started to rebound, and the pull of imports has begun to manifest itself. This is reflected in the monthly decline in import declines narrowing month by month. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the domestic economy will continue to pick up, and in particular the recovery of investment may be even faster. Domestic investment and consumption expansion will form a demand for imports.

To promote the effective operation of the mold industry in China in 2011 and the long-term healthy and rapid development, put forward three policies:

(1) Strongly urge the introduction of new fiscal and taxation preferential policies that will continue to support the development of molds as soon as possible so that the role of policy guidance can be sustained to speed up the adjustment of the industry structure, change the pace of development and scientific and technological progress.

(2) Many molds are high-tech products, with high technological content and added value, low energy consumption of production molds, and almost no pollution. The average unit price of mold exports is about 10,000 USD/ton, and more export molds are beneficial to improve China’s foreign trade products. Structure, it is recommended to increase the export tax rebate rate for the major mold products to encourage investment.

(3) It is recommended that relevant departments of the State strengthen the support for projects jointly developed by mold companies and host product companies, especially for projects with scientific and technological progress and energy-saving and emission-reducing effects, and give substantive support to mold projects that have been included in basic special projects. stand by.

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