Experts: International oil prices are bullish on domestic retail prices

In the recent period, the domestic refined oil market began to rise. Thanks to a number of favorable factors, the domestic refined oil market has started a five-month rally road. In particular, diesel broke new highs during the year, and the average diesel price has approached the average price of gasoline.

Although the demand for “Jin 9 Silver 10” has already passed, the market for steam and diesel has ushered in a surge after entering November. According to statistics released by Jinlian, the average price of diesel in the country on November 6 was RMB 6,597/ton, which is lower than the lowest point in early July. It rose 1537 yuan/ton, or about 30.01%; the average price of gasoline in China was 6,669 yuan/ton, which was 848 yuan/ton higher than the low point in early July, or about 14.50%. So what is the reason for such soaring prices?

Jin Conghuang, an oil product analyst at UnionPay Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the “Securities Daily” reporter yesterday that, first of all, the continuous push-up of the refined oil market was inseparable from the increase in upstream costs; secondly, the fundamentals of supply and demand were boosting; , Shandong continued to push up the refining market to give the market upward momentum.

It is understood that since the beginning of July, international oil prices have continued to rise, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries have implemented joint production cuts, and the range of production cuts is expected to expand and increase production cuts. Subsequently, Russia hinted that the reduction of production may be extended again, which may further boost the market mentality. Coupled with the support of crude oil demand, the international oil price maintains an optimistic trend, and it also makes the refined oil market's bullish expectations continue to heat up.

Han Cong said that from the perspective of supply, some of the major refineries have gradually entered the inspection and repair process. In response to the peak production call for industrial companies during the national heating season, some refineries have taken the lead in execution, resulting in a significant decrease in crude oil processing volume. In addition, a series of factors such as the conversion of North production and replacement of negatives, and the upgrading of the country's Puchai Five, etc., have led to the delay in the deployment of diesel resources, the rising temperature of resource shortages in local areas, and strong support for the rise in market conditions. Looking at the demand side, since July, the demand for domestic gasoline and diesel has been in a state of recovery and improvement. Among them, the promotion of “Golden 9 Silver 10” has been particularly noticeable. The terminal mining and infrastructure construction rate has steadily increased, and the demand for diesel oil has improved significantly. In addition, the automobile travel radius has increased during the “11” holiday period, and the consumption of gasoline has continued to increase. On the whole, the progress of the consumption of refined oil resources has been accelerated, and boosted by the traditional peak demand season, which further boosted the market's rising momentum.

Han Cong said that during the “Jin 9 Silver 10” period, Shandong's refining sales were very smooth, and some refinery stocks fell to low levels. With the increase in the cost of outsourcing of domestic main units and the support of the Poly policy in the second half of the year, the domestic refined oil market ushered in a significant increase. In addition, the market's many positive incentives, the optimistic expectations of the floor industry players continue to increase, driven by the buying attitude, the market enthusiasm increased greatly, the market transaction climate is clearly warmer.

How far can this round of gains go? Han Cong believes that the recent international oil prices remain high range fluctuations, the center line is still bullish, the recent domestic retail price "two consecutive up" no suspense, the news still has strong support in the face of the market. In addition, the shortage of short-term domestic diesel resources is difficult to alleviate effectively. With the news and fundamentals resonating, it is expected that the domestic refined oil market will still have room for growth in the short term, and the overall price will remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. However, after mid-November, some northern regions will usher in the peak season of winter stoppages, diesel demand will shrink, and gasoline demand will remain flat. Overall, it is possible to exclude the possibility of late-stage bear-market advantage. The market will be late November. Or pressure.