The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council recently issued the "National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as "Planning"). As a macroscopic, strategic and basic plan to guide the healthy development of urbanization in the country in the future, the “Planning†will have a positive effect on many industries including the LED industry.
2013-2016 is the golden development period of LED lighting, and the penetration rate will increase from 20 to 45. It is a rare industry with relatively fast growth and certain certainty.
After the technological advancement and industrial upgrading accelerated, the cost of LED products has been greatly reduced, the application range of LED products has been continuously increased, and the market scale has been expanding. In 3 to 5 years, the compound growth rate of LED lighting demand scale has reached 30~40. Demand start-up and policy promotion, LED The driving force of the industry has changed from backlighting applications to lighting applications. From 2013 to 2016, the LED lighting penetration rate has increased from 10 to 50, driving the LED lighting industry chain into a high-energy cycle. Third, the competition pattern has changed, and LED production capacity has gradually shifted from the United States, Japan, and the European Union to China, Taiwan, and South Korea. Fourth, the speed of industrial integration has obviously accelerated, industrial concentration has gradually increased, and industry leaders with core technology advantages, channel advantages, and scale advantages have grown rapidly.
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According to Qilu Securities, in the long run, the lighting penetration rate will accelerate. It is expected that the LED lighting penetration rate will increase from 10 to 50 in 2013~2016, driving the LED lighting industry chain into a high boom cycle.
In addition, the upstream and downstream links of the medium and long-term LED industry chain have the most investment value: from the lighting industry value chain and development trend, the current LED epitaxial chip profit accounts for about 70, the packaging link is about 10~15, and the application link is about 10 ~20, in the value chain front-end chip links occupy a very high added value. As the status of LED applications and brand services increases, the added value of downstream applications and brand services will gradually increase. We believe that the two-chip and lighting applications of the medium and long-term LED industry chain have the most investment value. In the short to medium term, the LED lighting industry chain has investment value.
In terms of industry development trends, the LED industry is accelerating integration, and the investment opportunities in the segmentation of the dominant enterprises are growing rapidly: the LED industry integration speed is significantly accelerated, the industry concentration is gradually increasing, and it has core technology advantages, channel advantages, and scale advantages. The industry chain segmentation leader will grow rapidly through extensional expansion.
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