With the decline of national economic growth and the influence of environmental protection, purchase restrictions and other policy factors, China's auto industry is gradually transitioning from a mode of capacity-driven development to a new development cycle driven by stocks. In the “post-cycle eraâ€, the development opportunities of the entire automobile industry chain are undergoing tremendous changes. Many industry insiders said in an interview that the valuation of automobile listed companies in the future can be summarized as the growth of the automobile market caused by the growth of the automobile market, the “One Belt and One Road†boosting the growth of commercial vehicles, and the upgrading of consumption to drive new energy. Three new main lines for car and SUV consumption.
Sales and the rise of the aftermarket The relevant analysts of Essence Securities pointed out that in the past, due to the obvious shortage of supply, China's auto industry is in a capacity-driven development cycle, which can be called the “pre-car cycleâ€; since then, with the development of the industry, The new model driving development cycle characterized by the centralized listing of models can be called the “China Automotive Cycleâ€; now it is gradually entering the industry sales and profit decline, and the stock-driven development cycle can be called the “post-car cycleâ€. .
According to the analysis of the China Automobile Association, China's automobile ownership is in a period of rapid rise. It is expected that the number of private car ownership in China will reach 120 million by the end of 2014, and will continue to maintain a growth rate of 10%-15% in the next five years, by 2020. It will reach 250 million vehicles. This aspect will bring huge repair demand, on the other hand, it will also increase the price of bicycle service, which will make the aftermarket profit more lucrative.
Futian Automobile related person pointed out that in the past, due to the low level of development of China's auto industry and the restrictions of relevant policies and regulations, the aftermarket of the automobile is chaotic and disorderly, the service level is low, and the business model is outdated. In the future, the introduction of relevant policies will be a trigger for the outbreak of the industry. Coupled with the popularity of the Internet, there will be more profound changes in the automotive aftermarket, and new business models are bound to emerge, bringing new demands. The automotive aftermarket is a modern “golden industryâ€. According to the experience of developed countries, its profit is expected to account for 60%-70% of the entire industrial chain.
At the same time as car ownership has increased, dealer inventory has been climbing in recent years. However, the expectation of the introduction of relevant new policies is also accelerating, and it is expected to change this state and drive the reshaping of the automobile sales chain. The final version of the "Automobile Sales Management Measures" is expected to be officially implemented at the beginning of next year after revision. Compared with the previously issued "Automobile Brand Management Measures", the biggest feature of the newly revised "Automobile Sales Management Measures" is that the word "brand" has been removed, and the authorization method for dealers has been changed to five from the previous year. Once a year. This means that the end-of-year threats of auto dealers to dealers will no longer exist. At the same time, the manufacturers' pressure, pressure fittings, and tying boutiques will be further regulated.
Some automakers told reporters that this means that dealers' operations will move toward more diversified development. On the one hand, the operation will have more autonomy. On the other hand, the types of operations will also include various aspects such as post-market services and chain operations. The operation mode is to cope with the unfavorable situation that the growth rate of new car sales is slowing down and profits are not high.
It is understood that large auto and other automobile trading companies are preparing to build a "car supermarket" to form a situation in which multiple brands such as Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz jointly operate, and the channel influence in the field of automobile circulation is expected to be strengthened.
After the rapid development of “One Belt and One Road†or commercial vehicles with fire in recent years, coupled with factors such as urban purchase restrictions and emission regulation upgrades, the domestic automobile demand slowdown trend is obvious, and the China Automobile Association and other institutions expect full sales in 2014. The speed will fall back to around 8% or below. However, in the future development opportunities of the automotive industry, in addition to the optimism of car dealers and the aftermarket, the opportunities of OEMs cannot be ignored. A number of automakers told reporters that with the acceleration of the “Belt and Road†construction, the auto industry is welcoming new opportunities to expand overseas markets.
Futian Auto said that the “Belt and Road†is a strategic carrier of China's capital export plan, which will help drive the construction of neighboring economies and digest domestic excess capacity. It will be a win-win and win-win interactive process. As an important prerequisite for the “Belt and Road Initiativeâ€, infrastructure construction will be the first to receive financial support and priority promotion. Trucks are expected to benefit first as a must-have asset for infrastructure.
Analysts at Essence Securities agree with this view. He said that according to its estimates, China's passenger car growth rate in 2015 may be 5.9%, reaching 20.6 million; while commercial vehicles increased by about 6.5% year-on-year to 4 million. “There are both reasons for emission upgrades and the elimination of yellow-label vehicles, as well as the “One Belt, One Road†initiative.â€
Domestic auto companies have already started in the overseas market. While digesting domestic stocks, they are expected to share the international market opportunities under the interconnection. Taking Lifan as an example, public data shows that the company's overseas revenue in the first half of 2014 has reached 65.75%, 40% of passenger car production and 60% of motorcycles are used exclusively for export. At present, the company has a complete sales network in more than 60 countries and builds automobile manufacturing bases in Russia and other places. Another example is Great Wall Motor's competitive advantage in areas such as SUV. The company has previously announced an investment of 3.2 billion yuan to build a wholly-owned vehicle production plant in Russia. After the completion of the plant, the annual production capacity will reach 150,000 units. The future sales volume is expected to increase by 1/ 4.
Consumption upgrades drive new energy and SUVs
The consensus in the industry is that for traditional cars, as the automotive industry's rising cycle has entered the second half, the industry's prosperity has gradually crossed the peak, and industry sales may be lower than market expectations.
According to analysts of Essence Securities, overall, the sales and profit of the auto industry are still gradually declining, and the average annual growth in the future may converge with GDP growth. The listing speed of new models is likely to gradually slow down in the future, thus bringing development opportunities for independent brand car companies.
In the future, self-owned brand cars will break through in two major areas: new energy vehicles and SUVs. The China Automobile Association said that the new energy automobile industry is a national strategic emerging industry with long-term development prospects. New energy vehicle support policies have been introduced throughout the country. Many car companies have launched new energy vehicle business, and new energy vehicle core component manufacturers. It is also frequent, and charging equipment has set off a construction climax. Under such circumstances, new energy vehicle-related enterprises will become long-term "white horses".
The "counter-attack" trend demonstrated by the SUV last year is still expected to continue for many years. Taking the latest Chinese auto data released by the China Automobile Association as an example, from January to November, China's passenger cars sold a total of 17.639 million units, an increase of 9.22%. Among them, the sales of basic passenger cars (sedans) were 11.113 million, an increase of 2.59%; the sales of multifunctional passenger vehicles (MPV) were 1,698,000, an increase of 48.70%; the sales of sporty multi-purpose passenger vehicles (SUV) was 358.64. Ten thousand vehicles, an increase of 34.13%. Therefore, market participants generally believe that multi-purpose vehicle manufacturers represented by Great Wall Motors still face excellent development opportunities.
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